Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 22.581334 24.766193 27.215761 30.197388 33.773604 37.985949 43.419049
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 19.327661 22.134037 25.533361 30.065362 36.138306 44.313819 56.809206
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.254655 20.390226 24.414564 30.183534 38.687322 51.678965 75.531371
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.630199 18.897315 23.275060 29.916838 40.516533 58.684385 99.069465
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.372218 17.686086 22.279660 29.579951 42.057361 65.871688 130.943996
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.389704 16.717225 21.461614 29.308001 43.571659 73.787426 178.180585
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.602000 15.928704 20.788541 29.114511 45.137326 82.789753 255.081951
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.821727 15.073486 19.907193 28.405212 45.481885 89.134462 353.276651
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.565651 14.958098 20.147434 29.677690 50.344745 112.447771 933.894670
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 11.037222 14.386077 19.590482 29.387854 51.614116 125.814752 2676.387542
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.639350 13.981920 19.264943 29.481146 53.861729 146.411626 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 10.313421 13.664033 19.049487 29.751845 56.692759 175.449077 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.988548 13.331673 18.788511 29.912881 59.404350 212.289339 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.615203 12.899416 18.318208 29.567202 60.544464 243.863676 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.326294 12.586294 18.032999 29.584450 62.898629 298.950991 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.017523 12.223316 17.629811 29.283108 64.122562 353.432798 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.727410 11.876009 17.230152 28.938789 65.116777 418.869643 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.468404 11.567485 16.880563 28.668039 66.334803 511.477425 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 8.237805 11.295341 16.580242 28.477727 67.846977 652.948741 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.963221 10.937603 16.097856 27.792464 67.123779 726.970546 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.927190 10.980383 16.375282 29.017551 75.279918 1976.909650 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.725772 10.731309 16.074487 28.738088 76.477734 3429.135014 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.575358 10.563672 15.922053 28.827762 79.639338 17521.779523 NaN